FIRST Potato: AI-Enabled Scalable Validation of Regenerative Impact on Potato Production

The FIRST Potato project in Potato Farming — pioneers an innovative, AI-powered methodology and decision support system (DSS) to scientifically validate and accelerate the adoption of regenerative agriculture (RA) practices in potato production across Europe. Led by Cropin in collaboration with Aarhus University (providing academic rigor through scientific pilots in Denmark) and BJ Agro (contributing industrial insights), the initiative is a co-funded grant under EIT Food's Impact Funding Framework. It directly addresses a critical evidence gap: while regenerative practices — such as improved soil structure via reduced tillage, diverse crop rotations, organic amendments, and cover cropping — promise enhanced soil health, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, climate resilience, and long-term sustainability, they often face skepticism due to potential initial yield dips and uncertainty around maintaining key quality metrics like tuber dry matter content (solids percentage). High dry matter is essential for processors, enabling higher yields of finished products (e.g., crisps and fries), reduced oil absorption, better texture, and overall market value, making verifiable RA benefits crucial for sustainable sourcing commitments.

The project's robust, hypothesis-driven framework integrates multi-source data over an 18-month period (with ongoing scaling ambitions) from eight paired sites comparing conventional versus regenerative management. This includes standardized on-field measurements, fusion with Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for vegetation and stress monitoring, high-resolution weather data, IoT sensors for real-time soil and crop conditions, and Cropin's advanced AI/ML models. These models deliver precise insights into crop health, early stress detection (e.g., drought, disease, nutrient issues), yield estimation, phenological event timing (sowing, emergence, senescence), and plot-specific agronomic advisories to optimize irrigation, inputs, and residue management while supporting regenerative transitions.

Four core hypotheses (H1–H4) are rigorously tested using statistical correlations (R², Pearson, and related metrics) to quantify the impacts of key regenerative levers — soil structure improvements, diversified rotations, organic amendments, and optimized senescence timing — on outcomes such as tuber dry matter content, overall yield stability, reduced input use (pesticides, water, fertilizers), and enhanced resilience to abiotic stresses. By accounting for confounding factors like cultivar differences, microclimatic variations, and weather extremes, the approach ensures transparent, fair, and localized comparisons, filling the void in credible, scalable evidence that has hindered wider RA uptake.

Pilots span scientific trials in Denmark and commercial implementations in Germany and the UK, aligning closely with the EU Soil Health Mission and broader sustainability goals. By providing processors with reliably sourced high-solid tubers from regenerative systems and equipping growers with data-driven tools for profitable transitions, FIRST Potato aims to deliver measurable targets by 2028: approximately +5% yield stability, -15% pesticide use, -5% water consumption, +1.5% tuber solids, and economic benefits of around €410 per hectare. This scalable, transparent methodology not only bridges the gap between regenerative promise and practical adoption but also empowers the entire potato value chain — from farm to fork — to advance toward climate-smart, resilient, and environmentally positive production across Europe.